A six-part forecast across the world’s likely flashpoints over the next decade, from the Taiwan Strait to the Sahel, with a thread that ties them together: war in 2026-2036 will be more digital, more economic, and less neatly declared than what came before.

Part 1 — the Taiwan Strait flashpoint

The U.S.-China standoff over Taiwan is moving from low-probability “what-if” to a real-time crisis. By 2030, drones, missiles, and cyber-attacks could shape the opening minutes of the first true superpower war of the 21st century. The blockade-vs.-full-war scenarios are not abstract; they are operational planning at the carrier-group level on both sides.

Part 2 — AI-armed cyber-war

AI-powered hacking, deepfakes, automated grid-targeting, and exploit-finding models (see our Anthropic Mythos brief) are turning cyber-war into a continuous background conflict, running alongside and sometimes triggering traditional wars. The next major war may begin with a silent data leak, not a thunderous bombardment.

Part 3 — Russia, NATO, frozen Eastern Europe

The Russia-Ukraine war is settling into a “frozen-but-fighting” state with constant skirmishes, energy-blackout campaigns, and Baltic-Kaliningrad-corridor flashpoints that keep NATO on permanent alert. Eastern Europe isn’t heading toward peace — it’s heading toward a decade-long grinding stalemate.

Part 4 — the Middle East tinderbox

Israel-Hezbollah escalation risks, Iran-backed militia arcs, and a single shooting incident or drone strike could ignite a multi-front war across Lebanon, Gaza, and the Gulf. The next Middle East war may not be about borders — but about survival in a region already consumed by slow-motion collapse.

Part 5 — Africa, the Sahel, warlord economies

Conflicts in Sudan, Mali, Somalia, and the Sahel fuse civil war, terrorism, and foreign-proxy wars into economies built on instability and extraction rather than peace. In parts of Africa, conflict is no longer a side-effect of weak states — it’s the business model.

Part 6 — the economics of war

Economic-nationalism, friend-shoring, digital-control regimes, and sanctions cycles function as “war by other means,” raising prices, destabilizing supply chains, and fueling populism. You may never hear a declaration of war — but you’ll feel it in the grocery store and at the fuel pump.